Op-ed by Naweed Kawusi, former colonel with the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces starting off with the Afghan Commandos in 2002, author, PEN contributor
June 18 2025
Sudan’s water security is an urgent matter that carries significant regional, national, and international ramifications. The predicament is further compounded by the country’s reliance on the Nile River, geopolitical tensions, internal strife, and climatic fluctuations; these factors collectively endanger the means of subsistence of millions and have the potential to disrupt the region.
Sudan is geographically located in a semi-arid and arid region of North Africa characterized by limited and inequitable water resources. The Nile, traversing eleven countries, serves as the principal freshwater source for Sudan. In the past, Egypt and Sudan were granted a disproportionate share of the Nile’s waters through agreements like the Nile Waters Agreements of 1929 and 1959, which marginalized other nations in the Nile Basin. Constraints have persisted regarding these agreements, especially in regards to Ethiopia, which has initiated a bold undertaking that adds to the complexity of the situation.
These tensions have reached a critical juncture due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) being constructed on the Blue Nile. Ethiopia considers the GERD a critical component in its progress, with the objective of producing in excess of 6,000 megawatts of electricity. This endeavor is anticipated to substantially bolster Ethiopia’s economy and ensure energy security. Nevertheless, the downstream countries of Sudan and Egypt have expressed apprehension regarding the possible decrease in water flow, a circumstance that may detrimentally affect their agricultural output and water security.
PHOTO: Naweed Kawusi, former colonel with the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces starting off with the Afghan Commandos in 2002, author, PEN contributor
The GERD poses considerable hazards and prospective advantages for Sudan. One possible advantage of the dam is its potential to mitigate the effects of seasonal inundation and improve the dependability of irrigation water supplies by regulating the Nile’s flow. Additionally, this regulation has the potential to enhance Sudan’s hydroelectric power generation capacity, thereby bolstering its energy sector significantly. Nevertheless, significant concerns exist with regards to the potential decrease in water resources that may occur during the dam’s filling and extended periods of drought. Such reductions could have a devastating effect on agriculture in Sudan, which provides food security and employs approximately 80% of the population.
Sudan’s water scarcity challenges are further compounded on an internal level by persistent conflicts, specifically in regions such as Darfur. A complex interplay of ethnic tensions, political marginalization, and competition over diminishing natural resources, particularly water, have fueled the Darfur conflict since it began in 2003. The escalation of climate change, which is resulting in more frequent droughts and unpredictable precipitation, has exacerbated the water dispute between pastoralists and farmers, precipitating violent confrontations and substantial population displacement.
Severe humanitarian consequences result from water insecurity in Sudan. UNICEF reports that a mere 37 percent of Sudan’s population has access to basic sanitation facilities, while only 68% have access to basic potable water services. High rates of infant mortality, malnutrition, and waterborne diseases are all consequences of this lack of access. The economic difficulties confronting the nation, which result in a significant proportion of the populace residing below the poverty threshold, exacerbate the predicament.
Efforts to resolve water security in Sudan are further complicated by the country’s political instability. Decades of conflict have befallen the nation, and its recent descent into further turmoil was precipitated by a military rebellion in October 2021. The presence of instability poses a hindrance to the implementation of effective water management policies and disrupts governance. Furthermore, due to the unstable political climate, international aid, which is vital for water and sanitation projects, is frequently inconsistent, leaving numerous initiatives unfunded or unfinished.
Extreme regional repercussions result from the water insecurity in Sudan. Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, among other countries in the Nile Basin, rely on one another for water resources. Significant alterations in the Nile’s course have the potential to incite tensions and conflicts among the aforementioned nations. Already, diplomatic confrontations have been triggered by the GERD, and the risk of escalation remains high in the absence of a cooperative framework.
A vested interest exists among the international community in the stability of this region. Hundreds of millions of people reside in the Nile Basin; water insecurity can cause mass migration, interregional strife, and humanitarian emergencies that transcend national boundaries. In addition, the water resources of the Nile are vital for agricultural production in a region where food security issues are already severe. Food insufficiencies caused by water supply disruptions have the potential to worsen destitution and spark social unrest.
In order to address water security in Sudan, a multifaceted strategy is required. Regarding the waters of the Nile, it is critical that Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia engage in constructive dialogue on a regional level. Coordination of dam operations and open data exchange are critical for maximizing the advantages of the GERD while minimizing its negative effects on countries situated downstream. In addition to other international organizations, the African Union can ensure that the interests of all Nile Basin countries are taken into account and facilitate these negotiations.
Sudan should give precedence to domestic investments in water infrastructure. This encompasses the implementation of sustainable water management practices, the expansion of access to pure drinking water and sanitation facilities, and the modernization of irrigation systems to increase agricultural productivity. These types of investments are of the utmost importance in order to decrease water wastage, improve efficiency, and guarantee a fair allocation of water resources. Technical and financial assistance from abroad is essential for these endeavors. Sudan could benefit from the assistance and knowledge of organizations such as the World Bank, the United Nations, and numerous NGOs in constructing resilient water systems.
Additionally, adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change must be incorporated into Sudan’s water security strategy. Strengthening the nation’s capacity to manage climatic variability via drought-resistant crops, efficient water storage systems, and rainwater harvesting can contribute to the development of resilience against the effects of climate change. In addition, efforts to conserve soil and promote reforestation can enhance the land’s natural water retention, thereby mitigating the severity of droughts and floods.
The Sudanese crisis serves as a prime example of the interdependence between water security and conflict. This matter transcends environmental concerns and affects human survival, regional stability, and economic development. It is imperative that the Sudanese government, regional stakeholders, and the international community work together immediately to ensure a prosperous and sustainable future for all its citizens by managing the country’s water resources equitably and sustainably. In order to effectively confront these challenges, it is imperative to promote collaboration, allocate resources towards sustainable resolutions, and address the underlying factors that contribute to discord. By doing so, water can be converted from a source of tension into a bedrock for peace and progress.